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AUD/USD

Detailed AUD/USD Forecast for July 22, 2026

As of today, July 22, 2026, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.7000–0.7005. The pair has recovered toward the key 0.7000 level, supported by higher oil prices and RBA tightening expectations amid geopolitical tensions, though the US dollar remains resilient overall.

Technical Analysis

Technical picture is neutral with a slight bullish bias in the very short term. The pair is trading just above the 200-day SMA while remaining below the 55/100-day SMAs near 0.7060. RSI on daily charts is modestly bullish (around 53–55). On hourly charts, resistance is seen in the 0.7070–0.7079 area, with support near 0.6980–0.6990. The structure suggests continued range trading with upside potential if 0.7070 is cleared.

Fundamental Analysis

The Australian Dollar is supported by elevated oil prices due to Middle East tensions, raising inflation risks and expectations of further RBA hikes. Upcoming Australian employment data will be closely watched. The US dollar benefits from solid economic data and a relatively firm Fed policy stance. Geopolitical risks and commodity prices remain key drivers for the AUD.

Interest rate differentials and global risk sentiment continue to influence the pair in the short term.

Short-Term Forecast (1–5 Days, Intraday)

Neutral to mildly bullish bias. The pair is expected to trade mainly within 0.6970–0.7070. A break above 0.7070 would improve the outlook toward 0.7120, while a move below 0.6970 could open the way to 0.6920–0.6890. Volatility is likely to increase around important economic releases and geopolitical news.

Trading Ideas: Consider buying on dips toward 0.6980–0.6990 with targets at 0.7050–0.7070. Cautious selling on rallies near 0.7060–0.7079 targeting 0.7000–0.6980. Keep stops tight (10–20 pips) and follow the news flow.

Medium-Term Outlook (Until End of August 2026)

The broader outlook remains neutral-to-bullish while above the 200-day SMA. AUD/USD may test 0.7100–0.7150 on sustained commodity strength and RBA hawkishness. However, stronger US data or risk-off moves could pressure the pair toward 0.6900–0.6800. The most probable trading range in the coming weeks is 0.6900–0.7100. Strategy: buy on dips and remain selective with shorts.

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